Gameweek 7 Predictions: Our AI Backs No Draws, But Expects Nearly Three

FootyPulse's AI has not called a single draw in Gameweek 7. Its own numbers suggest that will not survive contact with reality: add up the draw probabilities across the ten fixtures and the model expects 2.6 of them to finish level.

That is not a flaw so much as how probability works. A draw is rarely the single likeliest outcome of any one match, yet draws accumulate across a round. So this is the shape of our Gameweek 7 predictions: eight home leans, two away leans, no draws, and only four of the ten calls above 55%.

Below you will find every Premier League Gameweek 7 prediction, our standout call, the biggest upset against the table, the fixture we cannot split, and the team news that could still move things before kick-off. Our full running record is on the accuracy page.

FootyPulse AI, free-tier probabilities for 90 minutes, rounded. A 68% call fails about one time in three.

Premier League Gameweek 7 predictions at a glance

FootyPulse free-tier probabilities for 90 minutes, rounded to whole numbers. "Strong" is 55% or above, "moderate" 45–54%, "narrow" below 45%. Pro members also see exact scorelines and live half-time re-predictions on matchday (how re-predictions work).

How the round shapes up

Averaged across the ten matches, the model gives home sides 45.0%, draws 26.4% and away sides 28.6%. Three things stand out:

• A home-heavy slate. Eight of ten leans are home wins; only Liverpool at Brentford and Arsenal at Forest go the other way.
• A few confident calls, a lot of soft ones. Manchester City, Brighton, Tottenham and Arsenal are the only calls at 55% or above. Three more sit at 38%.
• Draws are hiding in plain sight. Summing the draw probabilities gives 2.64 expected draws. Treating the matches as independent (a simplification), the chance of two or more draws works out at roughly 79%.

Add up each match's top probability and you get 5.06. If the model is well calibrated, that is how many of its ten leading calls we should expect to land. Getting nine or ten right would be good luck, not proof of anything.

Leading call = most likely outcome per match. Expected = probabilities summed across ten fixtures. One gameweek is a small sample.

Standout call: Brighton v Crystal Palace (68%)

Manchester City against Ipswich gets the same 68%, but that is the obvious one. Brighton matching it against Crystal Palace is the call that says most about the model.

Brighton are third on 13 points with 18 goals scored and five conceded, and have taken seven points from three home games, according to FPL data as at 14 October. Palace are 12th, though they beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 last weekend. The 13% we give Palace is the joint-lowest away-win probability of the round.

The caveat is that Palace's Henderson and Mateta are both listed as due back around Sunday, so a stronger away XI than recent weeks is possible.

Biggest predicted upset: Tottenham v Coventry City (58%)

We define an upset as the model backing the side lower in the table (positions as at 14 October). By that measure the biggest is Tottenham, 19th, at 58% against 14th-placed Coventry.

On form alone this is not an obvious call. Spurs have taken one point from three home games, Coventry have just beaten Newcastle 4-1, and Spurs will be without the suspended Bentancur (banned until 7 November). The lean sits against the table, and 58% still leaves a 42% chance that Spurs do not win.

Others in the same family: Liverpool at 46% (ninth, at fourth-placed Brentford), Fulham at 38% (20th against eighth-placed Hull, the widest table gap of the round but one of the narrowest leans) and Bournemouth at 38% (18th against 17th).

Too close to call: Newcastle United v Aston Villa

Newcastle 38%, draw 28%, Villa 34%. A four-point gap between home and away win is the narrowest of the round, and it is a fixture where the single most likely outcome is still more likely not to happen.

Newcastle are 11th after a 4-1 defeat at Coventry and carry a long absence list. Villa are 16th and drew 2-2 with Brentford last time out. Bournemouth v Sunderland (38/34/28) and Fulham v Hull (38/31/31) are the other two where we would not argue with anyone who disagrees with us.

Gameweek 7 match-by-match

League positions and form are as at 14 October. Team news is as at 14–15 October and will change after Friday press conferences. Official line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off.

Calls published before kick-off. Every result is graded on the Gameweek 7 verdict page.

Everton v Chelsea (Saturday 12:30)

Match page · Team hubs: Everton · Chelsea

Everton 48% · Draw 28% · Chelsea 24%

Two sides on 10 points after six games, separated by one goal on goal difference, and still a clear home lean. Everton have taken seven points from three home matches; Chelsea three from three away. Chelsea's recent results swing wildly, a 3-0 defeat at Brentford followed by a 5-1 win over Bournemouth, which is why this is a moderate call and not a strong one. The 28% draw is above the round average.

Team news: Chelsea list Gittens as out and James as a 75% doubt. Everton's only flagged name is Mykolenko, also 75%.

Brentford v Liverpool (Saturday 15:00)

Match page · Team hubs: Brentford · Liverpool

Brentford 28% · Draw 26% · Liverpool 46%

Liverpool, ninth after a 3-0 defeat at Manchester City, are favoured away at fourth-placed Brentford, who have seven points from three home games and beat Chelsea 3-0 earlier this season. It is a table-defying lean and a softer one than the headline suggests: at 46%, this call is more likely to miss than land.

Team news: Gravenberch is suspended until 25 October. Bradley, Ekitiké and Leoni are out, and Gakpo, Isak and Szoboszlai are 75% doubts. Brentford's Schade, Schuster and Damsgaard are also 75%. A lot rides on who is fit.

Fulham v Hull City (Saturday 15:00)

Match page · Team hubs: Fulham · Hull City

Fulham 38% · Draw 31% · Hull City 31%

The flattest three-way split of the round. Fulham are 20th on two points and have not won at Craven Cottage this season; Hull are eighth on nine points with four from three away games. The model still leans home, but only just, and this is the lean most at odds with the table.

Team news: Robinson is a 75% doubt and Cairney 25% for Fulham. Hull's Targett is out.

Manchester City v Ipswich Town (Saturday 15:00)

Match page · Team hubs: Manchester City · Ipswich Town

Manchester City 68% · Draw 19% · Ipswich Town 13%

City lead the table on 18 points and won 3-0 at Liverpool last time out. Ipswich are 10th and beat Fulham 2-1 in their last game, but have taken three points from three away fixtures. A 68% call is as confident as the model gets this week, and still leaves roughly a one-in-three chance of City not winning.

Team news: No injuries or suspensions flagged for either side as at 14 October.

Newcastle United v Aston Villa (Saturday 17:30)

Match page · Team hubs: Newcastle United · Aston Villa

Newcastle 38% · Draw 28% · Aston Villa 34%

Our closest call, covered above. Home advantage nudges Newcastle ahead of a Villa side that has scored six and conceded 11 in six games.

Team news: Newcastle are the most depleted side on the slate: Elanga, Jaouen, Livramento and Ramsey are listed as out, with Touré a 75% doubt. Sports Mole's more cautious reading has Elanga and Ramsey as major doubts rather than certain absentees, so check Friday's press conference. Villa's Maatsen is out.

Bournemouth v Sunderland (Sunday 14:00)

Match page · Team hubs: Bournemouth · Sunderland

Bournemouth 38% · Draw 34% · Sunderland 28%

A bottom-end meeting already: 18th against 17th, three points against four, both on a goal difference of minus six. Bournemouth arrive after a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea; Sunderland after a 2-0 home loss to Brighton. A 34% draw is the highest draw probability of the round.

Team news: Bournemouth have Scott and Kluivert flagged. Sunderland are without Brobbey (hamstring, back around 25 October) and Ballard, with Meunier a 75% doubt.

Brighton v Crystal Palace (Sunday 14:00)

Match page · Team hubs: Brighton · Crystal Palace

Brighton 68% · Draw 19% · Crystal Palace 13%

Our standout call, covered above. Brighton have beaten Arsenal 3-0, won at Sunderland and are scoring freely; Palace come in off a 3-1 win over Forest but sit 12th.

Team news: Brighton's Hinshelwood is a 50% doubt. Palace's Henderson and Mateta are expected back around Sunday.

Leeds United v Manchester United (Sunday 14:00)

Match page · Team hubs: Leeds United · Manchester United

Leeds United 48% · Draw 29% · Manchester United 23%

Leeds are seventh with nine points, five of them from three home games, despite a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal last time. United are 13th, with two points from three away matches and a 1-1 draw with Spurs behind them. On reputation, backing Leeds looks bold; on the current table it is not an upset.

Team news: Leeds are without Joseph, Daniel James and Rodon (the latter not expected back until 21 November). United have Shaw and Mainoo at 75%, and Šeško is due back around Sunday.

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal (Sunday 16:30)

Match page · Team hubs: Nottingham Forest · Arsenal

Nottingham Forest 18% · Draw 26% · Arsenal 56%

The strongest away call of the round and the lowest home-win probability on the slate. Arsenal are second on 15 points with six from three away games; their one defeat this season was the 3-0 loss at Brighton. Forest are 15th, have taken one point from three home games and lost 3-1 at Palace last time out.

Team news: Forest are without Igor Jesus and Milenković, with Savona a 25% doubt. Arsenal's Tzolis is out until around 1 November, and Hincapié and Zubimendi are 75% doubts.

Tottenham v Coventry City (Monday 20:00)

Match page · Team hubs: Tottenham Hotspur · Coventry City

Tottenham 58% · Draw 24% · Coventry City 18%

Our biggest upset against the table, covered above. This is the Monday-night closer, and recent form does not obviously support the lean.

Team news: Bentancur is suspended until 7 November and Porro is out with a hamstring injury. Coventry's Amenda has a calf problem.

The absences that matter most

• Liverpool: Gravenberch suspended, plus Bradley, Ekitiké and Leoni out, and three further 75% doubts.
• Newcastle United: four listed as out and one doubt, with conflicting reads on two of them.
• Leeds United: Joseph, Daniel James and Rodon unavailable.
• Tottenham: Bentancur suspended until 7 November.
• Manchester City v Ipswich: nothing flagged on either side, which is rare enough to be worth noting.

What our AI cannot tell you

These are probabilities for 90 minutes, not certainties. A 68% call fails about one time in three, and in a single gameweek, variance will swamp skill. Ten matches are too small a sample to judge any model, which is why we publish the running record on the accuracy page and grade every call on the Gameweek 7 verdict page once the round is over.

Team news is the other moving part. Many of the names above are 75% doubts, and line-ups are only confirmed about an hour before kick-off. Only six games have been played, so early-season form data is thin everywhere.

The bottom line

Four strong calls (Manchester City, Brighton, Arsenal, Tottenham), three moderate (Everton, Leeds, Liverpool) and three too close to be confident (Newcastle, Bournemouth, Fulham). The model calls no draws, yet on its own arithmetic two or three will probably happen.

Which of our ten leans do you think is wrong, and where are the draws hiding? Compare your own calls with ours on the Gameweek 7 fixtures page, and see our AI v pundits leaderboard for how the model has fared against the experts.

FAQ

What are FootyPulse's Gameweek 7 predictions?

Our AI leans to Everton, Fulham, Manchester City, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Brighton, Leeds and Tottenham at home, and to Liverpool at Brentford and Arsenal at Nottingham Forest. The most confident calls are Manchester City and Brighton at 68%.

Which Premier League Gameweek 7 match is the closest?

Newcastle United v Aston Villa, at 38% home, 28% draw and 34% away. Bournemouth v Sunderland and Fulham v Hull City are also narrow.

When are the Gameweek 7 Premier League fixtures?

Gameweek 7 runs from Saturday 17 to Monday 19 October 2026, starting with Everton v Chelsea at 12:30 on Saturday and ending with Tottenham v Coventry City at 20:00 on Monday (UK time).

Does FootyPulse predict draws?

Yes, every match carries a draw probability. Our headline lean is the single most likely outcome, so a draw is only called if it beats both win probabilities, which is rare in any one match even though draws are common across a round.