Our Methodology
How we generate predictions — and what we don't claim to know
What We Analyse
For every match FootyPulse analyses:
Confirmed squad data
Official FIFA-registered squads for all 48 teams. We use confirmed player lists, not guesses or outdated rosters.
Opponent-adjusted form
We don't treat all wins equally. A win against a top-30 ranked nation counts significantly more than a win against a ranked-80+ nation. Friendly results are weighted at 30% vs competitive matches at 100%.
Tournament history and pressure
How many World Cups has this team appeared in? When did they last qualify? First tournament appearance? These factors matter more than recent club form for international football.
Head-to-head record
Historical meetings between the two nations where data is available.
Venue and conditions
Altitude (Estadio Azteca = 2,250m), host nation crowd advantage, neutral venue context and travel fatigue.
AI analysis via Claude Sonnet 4
All data is passed to Claude Sonnet 4 — Anthropic's latest AI model — which generates tactical analysis, win probabilities and predicted scores based solely on the data provided.
What We Don't Claim
FootyPulse is honest about its limits:
- ❌ We cannot predict injuries announced after our last data sync
- ❌ We cannot account for tactical surprises on match day
- ❌ Football is inherently unpredictable — no model gets every match right
- ❌ Our probabilities are estimates, not certainties
Predictions are updated every 3 hours using live data from API-Football's official feeds. The timestamp on each prediction shows when it was last generated.
Our Data Sources
| Source | What We Use It For |
|---|---|
| API-Football PRO | Live fixtures, scores, squad data |
| FIFA official registrations | Confirmed squad lists |
| Claude Sonnet 4 (Anthropic) | Tactical analysis generation |
| Wikipedia World Cup squads | Squad verification |
Accuracy Tracking
From June 11, FootyPulse tracks every prediction against the actual result.
We measure:
- • Outcome accuracy (did we predict the correct Win/Draw/Loss?)
- • Score accuracy (did we predict the correct scoreline?)
Results are published publicly on the homepage accuracy tracker — including matches we got wrong.
We believe transparency about misses builds more trust than hiding them.
Our Limitations — Honestly
FootyPulse is a new product launching with the 2026 World Cup. We don't have years of backtested data. What we do have is:
- ✅ Confirmed squad data for all 48 teams
- ✅ Opponent-quality adjusted analysis
- ✅ Transparent methodology
- ✅ Real-time data updates
- ✅ Public accuracy tracking from day one
We'd rather be honest about what we are — a smart, data-driven prediction tool — than oversell what no model can guarantee.
About FootyPulse
FootyPulse is an independent UK product by BSB Digital Ventures Ltd — no betting affiliates, no sponsored predictions. Learn more about FootyPulse →
Press, feedback or general enquiries: get in touch.