Premier League · Gameweek 6 Verdict
Gameweek 6 Verdict: 5/10 correct as upsets dominate the round
Published 13 October 2026 · FootyPulse AI Analysis
The AI model went 5-for-10 in Gameweek 6, matching exactly 50% accuracy as five fixtures defied the pre-match probabilities. Season accuracy now sits at 40% (23 correct from 57 fixtures), with draws and surprise home wins undermining otherwise confident calls.
The scoreboard
Gameweek 6 delivered five correct predictions from ten fixtures—a 50% hit rate that dragged season accuracy down slightly to 40%. Through 57 Premier League matches, the model has now logged 23 correct calls, with upsets and draws continuing to punish probability-based forecasting.
Biggest upset
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur proved the gameweek's most jarring result. The model backed United at home with 58% confidence, only for Spurs to salvage a point at Old Trafford. A draw—the outcome the data deemed least probable—neutralised what looked like a straightforward home banker on paper.
Best correct call
Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth stands as the gameweek's most precarious correct pick. The model favoured Chelsea with just 38% confidence, the lowest of any winning call this round. What the data flagged as a coin-flip turned into a five-goal statement, rewarding the model's marginal lean toward the home side despite minimal pre-match conviction.
Every fixture
- Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United – Predicted home, actual home ✅
- Ipswich Town 2-1 Fulham – Predicted home, actual home ✅
- Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford – Predicted away, actual draw ❌
- Sunderland 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion – Predicted away, actual away ✅
- Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth – Predicted home, actual home ✅
- Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur – Predicted home, actual draw ❌
- Hull City 2-2 Everton – Predicted home, actual draw ❌
- Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest – Predicted away, actual home ❌
- Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City – Predicted away, actual away ✅
- Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle United – Predicted away, actual home ❌
Five misses—three draws and two inverted results—highlight the volatility inherent in single-gameweek samples. Palace overturning Forest and Coventry dismantling Newcastle were both cases where the model leaned away and the underdog delivered. See the pre-match preview for the original probabilities. The data remains consistent over larger sample sizes, but individual rounds will always carry variance. Onward to Gameweek 7.
Half-time re-predictions this gameweek
At half-time the AI re-reads each match and re-predicts. Here is how those calls did against the pre-match calls, on the same set of Gameweek 6 matches.
Pre-match
5/10
50% correct
At half-time
6/10
60% correct
Where half-time changed the call
Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford
Pre-match: Brentford ✗ · Half-time: Draw (2–2) ✓
Why the call changed
- xG 0.7 v 0.6
- Shots on target 4 v 2
- Possession 43% v 57%
Ipswich Town 2–1 Fulham
Pre-match: Ipswich Town ✓ · Half-time: Draw (1–1) ✗
Why the call changed
- xG 0.1 v 0.5
- Shots on target 1 v 1
- Possession 36% v 64%
Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham Hotspur
Pre-match: Manchester United ✗ · Half-time: Draw (1–1) ✓
Why the call changed
- xG 0.1 v 1.0
- Shots on target 1 v 2
- Possession 43% v 57%
Hull City 2–2 Everton
Pre-match: Hull City ✗ · Half-time: Everton (0–1) ✗
Why the call changed
- xG 0.6 v 0.9
- Shots on target 3 v 3
- Possession 43% v 57%
Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest
Pre-match: Nottingham Forest ✗ · Half-time: Crystal Palace (3–2) ✓
Why the call changed
- xG 1.6 v 1.9
- Shots on target 4 v 4
- Possession 48% v 52%
Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City
Pre-match: Manchester City ✓ · Half-time: Draw (1–1) ✗
Why the call changed
- xG 0.4 v 0.1
- Shots on target 2 v 1
- Possession 46% v 54%
This is a single gameweek — far too small a sample to read anything into, in either direction. See the running pre-match vs half-time comparison on our accuracy page for the season picture.
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Prediction figures in this article reflect the data available at the time of publication and may have shifted since. See the live Gameweek 6 fixtures for the current numbers on each match.
See how the AI called it before kickoff:
Read the Gameweek 6 preview →