Spain vs Argentina: World Cup Final Preview, Team News and AI Prediction

Six wins from six for Argentina, the meanest defence at the tournament for Spain, and Lionel Messi's last dance — the World Cup final finally puts these two great footballing nations on the same pitch, with everything on the line.

For the first time in FIFA World Cup history, the reigning European champions meet the reigning world champions in the final itself. Spain and Argentina have produced some of the finest players the game has ever seen across seven decades of meetings, yet the two nations have somehow crossed paths only once before at a World Cup — a single group game in 1966 — and never at the knockout stage. That drought ends at MetLife Stadium on Sunday evening, with Spain chasing a first title since 2010 and Argentina attempting to become the first side to retain the trophy since Brazil in 1962.

A Head-to-Head Record With Nothing to Choose Between Them

Whatever happens on Sunday, it won't be decided by history. Spain and Argentina have met 14 times since their first fixture back in December 1952, and the record is as even as it's possible to be: six wins apiece and two draws. Their only previous World Cup meeting — that 1966 group-stage game in Birmingham — went Argentina's way, 2-1, but six decades is long enough that not a single player involved on Sunday had even been born. The two sides' most recent meeting, a March 2018 friendly, went the other way in some style, with Spain winning 6-1, though a seven-year-old friendly result carries little weight ahead of a final of this magnitude.

Current Form: Two Unbeaten Roads to New Jersey

Both finalists arrive unbeaten, but they've got there in very different fashion. Spain have been the tournament's most complete side by some distance — a 2-0 semi-final win over France means they've conceded only a single goal across the whole competition, with six clean sheets to their name, the most by any side at a single World Cup.

Argentina's record reads just as well on paper — six wins from six — but has been earned the hard way. Extra time was required to see off Cape Verde in the last 32 after a 2-2 draw in normal time. A two-goal deficit against Egypt in the last 16 was overturned with three goals in the closing stages. Switzerland pushed the holders to extra time again in the quarter-final. And England were beaten 2-1 in the semi only after Argentina struck twice late on. Where Spain have controlled matches from the front, Argentina have repeatedly found a way from behind.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Spain have no fresh fitness concerns heading into the final. Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino, both sidelined by injury earlier in the tournament, are back in full training and available, while Unai Simón continues in goal ahead of Arsenal's David Raya after setting a new World Cup record of 560 minutes without conceding — beating the previous mark of 517, held by Italy's Walter Zenga since the 1990 tournament. Pedri is expected to miss out again, with Rodri and Fabián Ruiz retained as the midfield pairing shielding the back four.

Predicted Spain XI (4-3-3): Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal

Argentina go into the final with a fully fit squad of 26 to choose from. Cristian Romero and Leandro Paredes, who both needed treatment for cramp in the quarter-final, came through the semi-final unaffected and should start. The main selection question is in the wide areas: Rodrigo De Paul is expected to return after a difficult outing for Giuliano Simeone against England, while Gonzalo Montiel could replace Nahuel Molina at right-back following a tough afternoon up against Djed Spence and Anthony Gordon.

Predicted Argentina XI (4-3-3): E. Martínez; Montiel, Romero, L. Martínez, Tagliafico; De Paul, Paredes, Fernández, Mac Allister; Messi, Álvarez

The Duel Within the Final

Everything about this game runs through one contest: Lionel Messi against the tightest defence left in the competition. At 39, and in what's widely expected to be his final World Cup appearance, Messi has already made history this summer, moving past Miroslav Klose to become the tournament's all-time leading scorer. The Golden Boot race itself, though, is now Kylian Mbappé's to lose — the Frenchman scored twice in Saturday's third-place play-off to move ahead of Messi, leaving Argentina's captain needing a big final of his own to land the one major prize still missing from his collection. Spain, for their part, will look to Pau Cubarsí and Aymeric Laporte to do to Messi what they've done to almost everyone else this summer.

There's a changing-of-the-guard subplot running alongside it, too. Lamine Yamal, at 19, has the chance to win the World Cup at an age Messi could once only have dreamed of — two players from opposite ends of their careers, sharing the biggest stage in the game.

FootyPulse's Verdict

FootyPulse's AI model now leans the other way, rating Spain 42% favourites, with Argentina at 35% and the draw at 23%. It's still marked a "toss-up" rather than anything close to a formality — Spain's tournament-long control and the meanest defensive record left in the competition are enough to nudge them slightly ahead, but a 23% draw probability and Argentina's habit of finding a way regardless keep this firmly open.

Spain have been the better side for longer, over more of the tournament; Argentina have shown, four times now, that they find a way from behind regardless. Sunday's final looks set to test which of those two truths matters more.

See the full live prediction and how it updates: See Match Prediction: Spain vs Argentina

FAQ

Who will win Spain vs Argentina? FootyPulse's AI model gives Spain a narrow 42% win probability, with Argentina at 35% and a draw at 23% — still marked a toss-up rather than a confident call.

When is the World Cup 2026 final? Sunday, 19 July 2026, kicking off at 20:00 BST (19:00 UTC) at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Have Spain and Argentina met at a World Cup before? Only once — a 2-1 win for Argentina at the 1966 World Cup in Birmingham. This is their first-ever World Cup knockout meeting and first World Cup final together.

Is this Lionel Messi's last World Cup? It's widely expected to be, given Messi will be 39 by the time of the next tournament in 2030, though the player himself hasn't confirmed this publicly.