Premier League Gameweek 10 Predictions: Our AI Backs Six Away Sides Before the International Break
Published 6 November 2026 · FootyPulse AI Analysis
6 min read
Published Friday 6 November 2026. Probabilities pulled 6 November 2026 and may move as team news lands. All kick-off times are UK time.
Six of this weekend's ten Premier League fixtures have an away side as FootyPulse's most likely winner. Only three have the home team in front, and one, Fulham v Newcastle United, is led by the draw. It is the last round before the November international break, and the model has Arsenal as its most confident call at 74%.
Across all ten matches, the model's combined outlook is 37.6% home wins, 26.3% draws and 36.1% away wins. Those are 90-minute probabilities, not guarantees.
Here is the full Gameweek 10 slate, with every match linked to its full FootyPulse prediction page.
Gameweek 10 predictions at a glance
All kick-off times are UK time. Probabilities are FootyPulse's free-tier 90-minute win/draw/win split.
| Fixture | Kick-off | Home | Draw | Away | Model's lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton v Coventry City | Fri 6 Nov, 20:00 | 58% | 24% | 18% | Everton |
| Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur | Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 | 28% | 30% | 42% | Tottenham |
| Arsenal v Hull City | Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 | 74% | 18% | 8% | Arsenal |
| Fulham v Newcastle United | Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 | 32% | 38% | 30% | Draw |
| Nottingham Forest v Manchester City | Sat 7 Nov, 17:30 | 18% | 24% | 58% | Manchester City |
| Brighton & Hove Albion v Brentford | Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 | 68% | 19% | 13% | Brighton |
| Crystal Palace v Liverpool | Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 | 18% | 24% | 58% | Liverpool |
| Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth | Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 | 34% | 28% | 38% | Bournemouth |
| Sunderland v Chelsea | Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 | 18% | 27% | 55% | Chelsea |
| Manchester United v Aston Villa | Sun 8 Nov, 16:30 | 28% | 31% | 41% | Aston Villa |
90-minute probabilities. A 74% call still fails 1 time in 4. footypulse.co.uk/accuracy
How many top picks should land?
Most likely outcome per fixture, Gameweek 10. Expected top-pick hit rate if calibrated: 5.3 of 10.
Add up the probability of each fixture's single most likely outcome and you get 5.3. If the model's probabilities are well calibrated, that is the number of "top picks" you would expect to land from ten: about five, not ten. Even a 74% call fails one time in four.
That is the point of publishing probabilities rather than certainties. You can check how they have performed on the FootyPulse accuracy page.
The standout call: Arsenal v Hull City (74%)
Arsenal are the model's most confident pick of the round, with Hull City on just 8%.
The league table backs the numbers up. Arsenal top it with 24 points from nine games (eight wins, one defeat) and arrive after a 1-0 win at Liverpool on 1 November. Hull sit 11th on 11 points, with five draws from nine. Hull are a side that draws, so the 18% draw figure is the number to watch if Arsenal's finishing is blunt.
For more on both clubs, see the Arsenal and Hull City team hubs.
Closest thing to an upset: Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur
There is no outright upset on this card. In all six away-favoured games, the visiting side is also the higher-placed one in the table.
The nearest thing is Elland Road. FootyPulse gives Tottenham 42% to Leeds' 28%, a 14-point lead, even though the two sides are separated by a single point (Spurs 9th on 12, Leeds 12th on 11). Leeds are winless in their last five league games, with three draws, while Spurs have won three of their last five. At 30%, the draw is still a live outcome.
Too close to call: Fulham v Newcastle United
This is the tightest fixture of the round. The draw leads at 38%, with Fulham on 32% and Newcastle on 30%, an eight-point spread from top to bottom outcome.
Newcastle travel to Craven Cottage after a 1-0 home defeat to Everton on Monday night. Fulham are 15th on nine points, two behind 13th-placed Newcastle.
Match-by-match
Friday: Everton v Coventry City (20:00)
Everton 58% | Draw 24% | Coventry 18%. Everton won 1-0 at Newcastle on Monday and sit seventh on 13 points. Coventry are 16th on nine points after six defeats in nine.
Saturday: Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur (12:30)
Leeds 28% | Draw 30% | Spurs 42%. See above. The early kick-off is a TNT Sports slot.
Saturday: Nottingham Forest v Manchester City (17:30)
Forest 18% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 58%. Forest are 19th, with one win, three draws and five defeats from nine, and only six goals scored. City are second on 21 points, with a league-high 20 goals.
Sunday: Brighton & Hove Albion v Brentford (14:00)
Brighton 68% | Draw 19% | Brentford 13%. The second most confident home call of the round. Brighton are third with 19 points and a goal difference of +17 (24 scored, 7 conceded). Brentford are sixth on 14 points and have drawn five of nine.
Sunday: Crystal Palace v Liverpool (14:00)
Palace 18% | Draw 24% | Liverpool 58%. Palace are 18th on seven points and have conceded 21, the most in the division. Jean-Philippe Mateta is suspended and Ismaïla Sarr is injured. Liverpool are fifth on 15 points and are coming off the 1-0 loss to Arsenal.
Sunday: Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth (14:00)
Ipswich 34% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 38%. A narrow away lean. Bournemouth are eighth on 12 points; Ipswich are 14th on 11, having conceded 18 in nine.
Sunday: Sunderland v Chelsea (14:00)
Sunderland 18% | Draw 27% | Chelsea 55%. The league's bottom side (one win, two draws, six defeats, five points) host fourth-placed Chelsea. Kevin Danso is suspended for the hosts.
Sunday: Manchester United v Aston Villa (16:30)
United 28% | Draw 31% | Villa 41%. United are 17th on seven points (one win, four draws, four defeats), Villa 10th on 12. The 31% draw figure is the second highest on the card behind Fulham v Newcastle.
Team news to watch before kick-off
- Crystal Palace: Mateta suspended, Sarr injured.
- Sunderland: Danso suspended.
- Everyone else: check each match page for the latest availability, and confirm at the pre-match press conferences, official club channels and the Premier League injury list.
FootyPulse's pre-match probabilities cover 90 minutes only. Pro members also get live half-time re-predictions, which update the picture once the first half has played out. See how they work on the methodology page.
The verdict
Gameweek 10 is an away-heavy slate by the model's own numbers: Arsenal, Brighton and Everton are the home favourites, six visitors are in front, and Fulham v Newcastle is the genuine coin-flip. Which away side delivers: Tottenham at Elland Road or Chelsea at Sunderland? Check the full Premier League fixtures and the season projection for more.
FAQ
What are FootyPulse's Premier League Gameweek 10 predictions? FootyPulse's AI favours Arsenal (74%) over Hull City, Brighton & Hove Albion (68%) over Brentford and Everton (58%) over Coventry City at home. It has six away sides in front: Tottenham, Manchester City, Liverpool, Bournemouth, Chelsea and Aston Villa. Fulham v Newcastle United is led by the draw.
Which Gameweek 10 match is closest to call? Fulham v Newcastle United, with the draw at 38%, Fulham at 32% and Newcastle at 30%.
What time are the Gameweek 10 Premier League games? Everton v Coventry City is on Friday 6 November at 20:00. Saturday has four games from 12:30 to 17:30, and Sunday has five from 14:00 to 16:30 (all UK time).
How accurate are FootyPulse's predictions? FootyPulse publishes its full record on the accuracy page. Probabilities are not guarantees: a 74% prediction still leaves a 26% chance of a different result.
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