AI Predicts the Premier League 2026/27 Final Table

FootyPulse ran 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 Premier League season before a ball has been kicked. Manchester City edge the title race — but the real story is at the bottom, where an established top-flight club is in more relegation danger than two of the three promoted sides.

Three of last season's top six start the new campaign under different managers. Enzo Maresca has taken over at Manchester City following Pep Guardiola's decade-long reign. Andoni Iraola is in charge at Liverpool after Arne Slot's exit. Xabi Alonso has stepped into Stamford Bridge following his brief spell at Real Madrid. Add three promoted sides in Coventry City, Hull City and Ipswich Town, and a World Cup summer that's scrambled form and fitness across the division, and this is about as hard a season to call from gut feel alone as the Premier League has produced in years.

So FootyPulse's model didn't guess — it simulated it. Every one of the season's 380 fixtures was run 10,000 times using the AI's win/draw/loss probabilities and predicted scorelines, producing a full projected table before a ball is kicked.

How the projection works

The model uses a bivariate-Poisson simulation, which keeps each simulated match's final scoreline consistent with its underlying win/draw/away probability rather than treating them as two separate guesses. All 380 fixtures are simulated 10,000 times; with none of the season played yet, every club's projection is currently built entirely on pre-season form, squad depth and the model's read on the new managerial appointments.

In the interest of transparency: for a small number of fixtures (8 of 380, or 2.1%), the model couldn't perfectly reconcile its predicted scoreline with its stated win/draw/away probability, and used the closest realistic match instead. It's a minor edge case, but worth stating plainly rather than glossing over.

The full predicted table

Pos	Club	Avg Pts	Avg GD	Title %	Top 4 %	Relegation %
1	Manchester City	74.4	+33.2	41.6%	92.2%	0.0%
2	Arsenal	73.2	+31.2	34.2%	90.3%	0.0%
3	Liverpool	68.5	+24.2	14.1%	74.6%	0.0%
4	Manchester United	64.7	+18.0	6.5%	56.7%	0.0%
5	Tottenham Hotspur	58.2	+9.0	1.2%	22.4%	0.6%
6	Aston Villa	58.1	+8.6	1.2%	23.0%	0.9%
7	Chelsea	57.3	+7.8	0.9%	19.0%	1.0%
8	Newcastle United	53.5	+2.2	0.3%	8.9%	3.1%
9	Brighton & Hove Albion	49.2	-3.8	0.1%	2.8%	8.8%
10	Fulham	48.6	-5.5	0.1%	2.6%	10.1%
11	Nottingham Forest	47.2	-7.1	0.0%	1.7%	13.2%
12	Bournemouth	46.9	-7.3	0.0%	1.5%	13.8%
13	Leeds United	46.6	-8.2	0.0%	1.3%	15.2%
14	Crystal Palace	46.4	-8.1	0.0%	1.2%	15.9%
15	Sunderland	44.7	-10.9	0.0%	0.7%	22.2%
16	Brentford	43.8	-12.1	0.0%	0.7%	26.3%
17	Ipswich Town	41.5	-16.2	0.0%	0.2%	37.3%
18	Coventry City	40.7	-18.3	0.0%	0.1%	41.4%
19	Everton	40.2	-17.3	0.0%	0.1%	43.6%
20	Hull City	39.7	-19.4	0.0%	0.1%	46.7%

The title race: closer than the manager change suggests

City edge it — 41.6% to Arsenal's 34.2% — but that's a genuine two-horse race rather than the procession pre-season punditry sometimes assumes when a club changes manager. Maresca inherits a City side already built for his style, and the model has last season's champions Arsenal firmly in touch rather than fading. Liverpool, under Iraola, are a distant third at 14.1% — comfortably in the top-four picture at 74.6%, but the model doesn't yet back a title challenge in year one of a new regime away from Bournemouth's more measured rebuild.

The top four fight: Chelsea's marquee appointment doesn't crack it — yet

This is where the projection gets interesting. Manchester United sit fourth at 56.7% — the last club the model comfortably backs for Champions League football. Beyond that, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Chelsea are bunched within a point of each other, and none crosses 25% for a top-four finish. Chelsea, despite the high-profile arrival of Xabi Alonso, are projected seventh — outside the Champions League picture, with a 19.0% top-four chance that puts a new-manager bounce firmly in "possible, not probable" territory.

The real shock: Everton, not a promoted side, is the fourth-most endangered club

The three promoted clubs finishing near the bottom is the expected story. What isn't expected is who's keeping them company. Everton — an established Premier League side playing their first full season at Hill Dickinson Stadium — sit 19th with a 43.6% relegation risk, worse than Coventry City (41.4%) and only narrowly behind Hull City (46.7%). That puts an established top-flight club in more relegation danger than two of this year's three promoted sides, and comfortably more danger than fellow recent-promotion survivors Sunderland (22.2%) and Leeds United (15.2%), who the model backs to consolidate comfortably by comparison.

Where this goes from here

This projection updates as the season plays out — completed fixtures feed in their real results, and the simulation re-runs from there. FootyPulse's full prediction record is public and updated after every round, so rather than waiting until May to see whether this table held up, you can track it fixture by fixture as the season goes.

See the live, updating projection →

FAQ

Who does FootyPulse's AI predict to win the Premier League 2026/27? Manchester City, with a 41.6% title probability — narrowly ahead of Arsenal at 34.2%.

Will Chelsea finish in the top four under Xabi Alonso? The model gives Chelsea a 19.0% chance of a top-four finish, projecting them seventh overall.

Which clubs does the model predict will be relegated? The four clubs with the highest relegation risk are Hull City (46.7%), Everton (43.6%), Coventry City (41.4%) and Ipswich Town (37.3%).

How is this prediction generated? FootyPulse simulates every remaining fixture 10,000 times using a bivariate-Poisson model built on the AI's win/draw/away probabilities and predicted scorelines for each match.